Election Preview: Top 10 Things to Look For Tonight

This post, submitted by TNG Editorial Assistant Corey, is part of a series of political countdowns through November 5th.



It's been a long two years since the presidential election began, and and even longer eight years since we last had a changing of the guard at the White House. Today, as voters head to the polls across the country, the direction our nation will take from here will be decided.

Here is TNG's guide for Election Night '08 - from the early evening bellwethers that will forecast the rest of the results, to the races and referendums most affecting the gay community, and even a few tips for getting through it all with grace and sanity. Join us after the jump as we countdown the top 10 things to look for tonight, and keep an eye out tomorrow morning when we recap the evening's biggest surprises.

10. MSNBC (or Stewart-Colbert)
If you're wondering which of the 10 million channels covering the election you should watch tonight, look no further than MSNBC. It's got, easily, the best political team lined up, and while you'll have to deal with Keith Olbermann and and Chris Matthews, you will also get the wonderful Rachel Maddow, who happens to be queer and also awesome. So there's that. (For those interested in a more humorous take, Colbert and Stewart have it covered.)

9. Youth Turnout
There will be a lot said about how many kiddies are going to the polls this year, after they all died in ecstasy for Obama like a hundred years ago. Whether or not they turn out will make a huge difference, and if they don't vote this year, get out the vote efforts for youths should either start from scratch or give up. Many get the facts wrong, though, so check out this article on how to decipher the data if the youth vote is something you're interested in.

8. Early Senate Bellwethers
Remember, folks, the Democrats have 51 seats in the senate now (if you include Lieberman and Sanders) and if they can make it to 60, the Republicans won't be able to filibuster anything. No matter who wins the White House, this is big. Take a look at this map of poll closing times and you'll see that the first three close senate races to be closed will be in North Carolina, Kentucky and Georgia. If the Dems win 2 of the 3, they will probably hit 60 seats; if they miss them all, or just win North Carolina, they will almost surely come up short.

7. Early Presidential Bellwethers
Again, looking at the map, Indiana is one of the first states we may see results from. HOWEVER, the part of Indiana that closes early will be the more Republican part, so don't start freaking out if Obama seems to be losing this swing state by big numbers. Soon, Ohio, Virginia, Georgia, and Florida will all be closing, too, and we may know the election results pretty darn early. If Obama loses all of these, he has to hold Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and win big out west. If he wins more than just Virginia out of those states, you can probably start pouring that champagne (or, if you're for McCain, start crying and downing shots of Vodka.)

6. New York State Senate
The Republicans currently control the New York State Senate by a two-seat margin. The governor of the state, Democrat David Paterson, has promised to work for a gay marriage bill regardless. But if the NY senate flips tonight to the Democrats, things would certainly be easier. From what I understand a lot is up in the air, and it will be tough even with Democratic leadership, but... it's definitely something to keep your eye on.

5. Prop 8 (and friends)
If Proposition 8 is passed tonight in California, gay marriage rights in that state would be cut off. It's extremely close in the polls. Both Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-Calif.) and Obama are against gay marriage, but also against the proposition, saying that the court's word is law; both sides, however, have been using the confusing stances of these two leaders to make their own case. Basically, if the proposition fails, gay marriage is there to stay. If it passes, it can (and will) be fought in the courts, but the path for equality becomes much, much harder. ALSO, don't forget that there are other battles like this one going on across the country - such as Florida's Amendment 2, which would also amend the constitution to prohibit gay marriage.

4. Booting of Annoying Congresspersons
Want some healthy, democratic schadenfreude? Marilyn Musgrave, GOP representative for the 4th district of Colorado and a big jerk on gay rights, may be going down tonight as the state shows its growingly blue colors. Meanwhile, certified nutjob Michelle Bachmann (R-Minn. 6th district) is in some trouble after calling for an anti-American witch hunt in Congress; even Joe McCarthy, from the grave, issued a statement for her to friggin' chill out. If she loses, I will have nothing to read over at Wonkette, but hey - no win is without its downside.

3. Gay House Candidates
There are four openly gay folks running for congress this year - Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) have easy reelects, and two newcomers are in the mix as well. Jared Polis (D-Col.) is running for an open seat that he's sure to win, and Linda Ketner (D-S.C.) has a shot in South Carolina. Definitely races to watch this evening, even if the stories aren't covered in the media.

2. Back Up Plans
If things aren't going your way in the polls, there's always this to consider.

1. A Way to Distract Yourself
I personally will die if I have to sit around waiting for the results. And looks like my plans to go watch High School Musical again just got canceled. So I will be drinking, heavily, and trying not to think too much about this. Cheers, everyone.