More on Marriage in California

This post was submitted by Keith Johnson, who lives in Silver Spring and works as an editor for a small DC nonprofit.

Last week, polling data from The Los Angeles Times suggested that a majority of Californians do not support gay marriage and would vote for a constitutional amendment barring the practice. This comes in wake of a California Supreme Court decision affirming the right of gay men and lesbians to marry.

The results of a poll released yesterday by The Field Research Corporation tell a different story. According to FRC, 51% of Californians now approve of gay marriage while 42% disapprove. This is the first time a majority has been in favor of allowing gay marriage since FRC began asking the question in 1977. Both the LA Times poll and FRC poll have a margin of error of +/- 4-5%.

Is the margin of error the only thing responsible for the nine point difference between these two polls?

Perhaps, but perhaps not. According to Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo, the court decision itself may be quickly swaying people in favor of gay marriage. “I am left to surmise that had some impact on voters who might have been on the fence or marginally opposed.”

This at least makes sense. Since 2003, FRC has also been asking Californians if they support or oppose a federal amendment to the constitution that would ban same-sex marriage. At least half of respondents have been opposed each time the question is asked. If FRC’s data is as reliable as some say, over half of Californians were against gay marriage (up until this week), while over half have opposed to using a constitutional amendment to ban the practice.

What does this mean? Well, the court has basically given Californians a directive: make up your minds. Californians must quickly decide an issue that not too many of them care that deeply about. An “activist court” (comprised of six Republican appointees and only one Democratic appointee), has dropped the issue of gay marriage in the laps of Californians. No longer can Golden State voters be theoretically opposed to same-sex marriage while simultaneously opposed to amending the constitution to forbid it. It looks like they might just be coming down on the right side.

This, combined with the historical fact that voter referendums in California tend to lose steam over time (thanks, Ben), bodes well for California queers. It will be a struggle, but if the amendment fails in November, it will be only the second time a state has voted against a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and the first time statewide voters have implicitly voted to allow full marriage equality. Keep your Sonoma sparkling wine corked for the moment, but it’s looking better than it was even a week ago.